Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – September 9, 2014

February 7 – 5 Ukrainian military were killed and 26 injured in the conflict area in Donbas in the last 24 hours, – informedVolodymyr Polevyi, deputy head of the Information Center of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during Munich Security Conference. NATO Secretary General has said that the alliance is strengthening collective security system as well as spoke about providing political and practical support to Ukraine on behalf of NATO.

February 7 – The West should not rule out military resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, – said on Saturday in MunichSupreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations, Gen. Philip Breedlove, writes Spiegel Online. "We are not talking about sending troops to Ukraine," – said Breedlove. In addition, he called Vladimir Putin's proposals on the resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine "totally unacceptable".

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has held tripartite talks with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Vice President Joe Biden – "The parties have coordinated further steps and stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire as well as continued dialogue on the implementation of all provisions of the Minsk agreements".

February 7 – Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has publicized intercepted conversations, which suggest that Russian military are provoking clashes between the ATO forces and militants of "People's Republic of Donetsk". They must be getting new "arguments" ready for Putin's negotiations.

February 7 – Armed Forces and the National Guards of Ukraine have received new military equipment – a modernized armored vehicle "Spartan", equipped with heavy machine gun and "Stugna" missiles.

February 7 – Ukraine is ready to support ceasefire at any time, – stated the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in his comments to journalists at Munich Security Conference. Whereas the issues of state's federal structure or the autonomy of certain regions (Putin's wishes), may only be decided at a national referendum, not in Moscow or Berlin. All is needed for peace in Donbas is closed borders with Russian Federation and withdrawal of Russian troops, not peacekeeping forces. In his speech at Munich Security Conference, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko presented the passports and military service cards of Russian soldiers who "must have gotten lost in Ukraine" and were detained by Ukrainian military.

Near Debaltseve after attack Russian terrorists appeared "cemetery" Russian tanks (video).

Poroshenko in Munich (20 min)

By Taras Kuzio

Arm Ukraine and force Putin back to the negotiating table

Russia, despite its repeated denials, is sending large quantities of military equipment to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine along with 9,000 of its troops. Movement of Russian forces, including the Pantsir-S1 missile system, are being tracked by think tanks and western intelligence agencies. Only Russian professional (not conscript) troops and intelligence officers can operate highly sophisticated Russian military equipment – not irregular separatist forces.

Respected Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer has concluded that the aim of Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, is to destroy Ukraine's independence by installing a satrap in Kiev similar to Chechen warlord Razman Kadyrov, thereby ending Kiev's goal of integration into Europe.

Putin reportedly told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Kiev should deal with the separatists by buying them off with autonomy and money as he had in Chechnya, which to her was unacceptable.

Russia and its separatist proxies have never abided by the September Minsk peace accords and last month tore them up and demand a new agreement that would lend legitimacy to their territorial gains. Military assaults have claimed a growing number of civilian lives, including 40 in rocket attacks on the port city of Mariupol and a Luhansk hospital, with the total number of civilians killed rising to 5, 500, according to the UN. Growing numbers of combatants continue to die on both sides, as illustrated by these gruesome photos of a column of 16 Russian and separatist tanks that was destroyed yesterday.

In the face of the new Russian-backed offensive, pressure on US President Barack Obama to send defensive military equipment to Ukraine is becoming ever more intense. The release of a report for the Atlantic Council of the US by eight US ambassadors calling for military assistance was published along with a crescendo of commentaries in The Times, The Guardian, The Financial Times (here, here andhere), The Wall Street Journal (here and here), The Washington Post, The New York Times, The American Interest, The Christian Science Monitor, The Atlantic, The New York Post, The Boston Globe, The Los Angeles Times and Spiegel Online.

This chorus of support was backed by influential former US National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. A bipartisan group led by Republican and Democratic Senators Rob Portman and Dick Durbin called for military assistance to Ukraine "to defend its sovereign borders against escalating Russian aggression".

The New York Times reported that the US was considering supplying arms to Ukraine, something reportedly confirmed by Douglas Lute, the US Ambassador to Nato. Ashton Carter, President Obama's choice to become his fourth Defence Secretary, said three days later he was "very much inclined" to provide arms to Ukraine to fight Russian-backed separatists.

Ukraine has been seeking western weapons since the summer of last year but so far has received only non-lethal equipment such as winter clothing, bullet proof vests and night vision goggles. The US did send 20 light counter-mortar radars late last year and, with two-decades of cooperation in Nato's Partnership for Peace programme, is beginning to train four companies of Ukraine's National Guard.

Arguments against the supply of weapons, the Wall Street Journal wrote, "look increasingly naïve". Nevertheless, Canadian commentators have pointed to Ukrainian corruption (see here and here) and the presence of "UkrainianNazis" as a way perhaps to justify the Stephen Harper government's decision not to providie military support. High levels of corruption never stopped the supply of Canadian military equipment and special force trainers to Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan. Although Putin and the Russian media have repeatedly raised accusations of"fascism" in Ukraine, it is the Russian (rather than the Ukrainian) regime that more closely resembles the political science definition of "fascism".

Nato will not send weapons to Ukraine but the UK, Poland and Canada would follow the US lead. President Obama is fighting against his own Democratic party if he sticks with the position of Chancellor Merkel, who continues to put naïve faith in a peaceful solution.

Economic sanctions (helped by falling oil prices) have not discouraged Putin's reckless and bloody intervention in eastern Ukraine. Some of those advocating military support to Ukraine believe – as in the 1980s through weapons supplied to the Afghan Mujahedeen – that only a growing number of casualties will force realignment in Russian policy to that of public opinion, two thirds of which is against intervention in eastern Ukraine.

The Donbas conflict, engineered and sustained by Moscow, is already Europe's worst security challenge since World War II. There have been 40 close military encountersin the air between Russia and the west since the annexation of the Crimea in March last year. Putin believes he is fighting a "Nato legion" through alleged Ukrainian proxies and has always claimed the Euromaidan revolution was a western-backed coup. Russian soldiers dying at the hands of western weapons would return the world to the Cold War of the 1980s, although it remains unclear which US congressman would today step up as the new Charlie Wilson.

Putin will stop his destabilisation of Ukraine and return to negotiations only when western arms equalise both sides on the battlefield.

Taras Kuzio is a research associate at the Centre for Political and Regional Studies, Canadian Institute forUkrainian Studies, University of Alberta and non-resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, School of Advanced International Relations, Johns Hopkins University.

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February 27 – 3 Ukrainian military were killed and 7 injured in the ATO area in the last 24 hours, – informed NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

February 27 – Russia plans to seize those parts of Ukraine that are needed create a corridor to Crimea (attack on Mariupol is possible in the spring), – stated Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.

February 27 – Organizers of Kharkiv terrorist attacks have received weapons and funding from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces, – stated at a press conference on Friday the Chief of Security Service of Ukraine Valentyn Nalyvaichenko. He said that for the attack, the terrorists were given mines from the army main office in Belgorod. They also received 10 000 US dollars as a payment for Kharkiv terrorist attack.

February 27 – Russia has concentrated 63500 of its military near the border with Ukraine. According to "Information Resistance" group, most Russian soldiers are located in Crimea (30 thousand). Additionally, near Russia-Ukraine border in Chernihiv direction there are 3350 soldiers, Kharkiv direction – 5150 soldiers, Donetsk direction – 21800 soldiers. Another 3200 Russian soldiers are located in Transnistria.

February 27 – Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko who is illegally detained at the Russian prison, intends to go on a dry hunger strike, – said her lawyer Illya Novikov in a comment to "Dozhd" TV channel.

February 27 – On Friday, the militants have concentrated on shelling Donetsk area, – reports ATO press-centre.

February 27 – In case the situation in Donbas deteriorates, the UK could reconsider a decision to grant Ukraine lethal weapons, – said UK's Foreign Minister Philip Hammond. "At this point we decided not to provide Ukrainian army with lethal weapons, but we can review this decision", – said Hammond.

February 27 – First Deputy to NSDC Secretary Oleg Hladkovskyi has said that Ukraine is receiving lethal weapons from foreign countries. "Where there is no unnecessary hustle, which we, unfortunately, often create ourselves – these countries we do receive lethal weapons from", – he said.

February 27 – During the International Defence Exhibition & Conference IDEX-2015 in Abu Dhabi, Ukrainian delegation has signed a contract for the purchase of remotely piloted aircraft and radioelectronic warfare equipment with French company Thales Group.

February 27 – Security Services of Ukraine state that Vladyslav Surkov, an assistant to the President of RF is sending terrorist organizations "LNR" and "DNR" secret messages about their reaction to the actions of the official authorities in Kyiv. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, Head of Ukraine's Security Services, stated this at a press conference on Friday by demonstrating a fragment of a circular dated February 2015. In this document, particularly, there is a statement that the decision to invite into Ukraine a peace-keeping contingent of UN is contradictory to the peace agreements. The circular is almost written in the same words as those later used by the leaders of the fighters in their comments on their media resources. Also, according to Nalyvaichenko, the Security Services of Ukraine are continuing to gather proof about the involvement of Surkov in directing the groups of the special staff of the Federation Security Services, who cooperated with the former directors of Security Services of Ukraine at the time of the events on Euromaidan.

February 26 – The situation in the ATO are has slightly stabilized, no attacks of our positions were recorded overnight, – said NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

February 26 – When speaking at US Congress Defense Committee meeting on February 25th, Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations Philip Breedlove has said that Russian troops are stationed in Transdniestria in order to "prevent Moldova getting closer to the West". Being stationed in Transdniestria they can hit Ukraine as easily as Moldova.

February 26 – National Joint Stock Company "Naftogaz of Ukraine" will take out a loan from the National Bank of China to the amount of 3.6 billion dollars.

February 26 – Russian "Gazprom" has agreed to discuss gas supply to the occupied areas of Donbas separately from overall Ukraine-Russia gas issues.

February 26 – Ukraine has begun the withdrawal of heavy weapons, – stated the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 100mm main guns are being withdrawn from the boundary line. 100-mm howitzers and anti-tank guns "Rapira" are being repositioned. They are being relocated 25 km from the lines identified by Minsk agreements.

February 26 – As a result of joint counter-terrorism activities implemented by the Security Service of Ukraine and the Interior Ministry of Ukraine, the criminals involved in the terrorist attack in Kharkiv on February 22th were detained. 4 people were killed in the attack, – informed NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov.

February 26 – In the last month Russia has relocated over a thousand units of military equipment, vehicles, tanks, artillery and air defense systems to Donbas, – stated NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

February 26 – Національний банк знизив офіційний курс гривні на 26 лютого до 30,01 гривні за долар.

National Bank of Ukraine lowered the official rate of hryvnia to 30.01 UAH per 1 US dollar for February 26th.

February 26 – During the lastfive months teachers on the territories controlled by "LNR" did not receive salaries or any social payments. ATO Spokesperson Andriy Lysenko announced this during a briefing. According to him the last time that teachers were paid for their work was for September 2014. "Since the majority of families of teachers remain without money, and the fighters continue to rob peaceful civilians, the educators gave an ultimatum to the leadership of "LNR". In case there is no payment of salaries, from March 9th, no school will remain open in Luhansk," he said.

February 26 – Ukraine has already filed with the European Court of Human Rights three law suits against the Russian Federation. The first one that Ukraine filed in the European Court of Human Rights against Russia was back in March 2014, during events which culminated in the annexation of Crimea.

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