Vladimir Putin doesn’t have time for a long ceasefire game, says security expert Michael DiCianna, a research fellow at the Center for Intermarium Studies at the Institute of World Politics in Washington. He believes that the Russian leader sees just “6 to 18 months” to seize the Ukrainian territory he wants, making any meaningful peace negotiations unlikely to succeed.
This urgency marks a significant shift from Putin’s previous military campaigns in Ukraine in 2008 and 2014, where he demonstrated more strategic patience. As Donald Trump’s team prepares to push for peace talks, Putin’s compressed timeline could derail negotiations before they begin, potentially intensifying the war at a moment when Western support for Ukraine hangs in the balance.
“I’m inclined to believe that the Russians no longer have the patience,” DiCianna explained in an exclusive interview with Euromaidan Press. “I don’t think Putin has the 2-3-5 years to take a ceasefire deal, rearm, and resume. I believe he views the next 6 to 18 months to seize the chunks of Ukraine he wants to seize.”
The analysis comes as Trump’s nominated team, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Peace Envoy General Keith Kellogg, prepares to pursue new peace negotiations. However, DiCianna warns that Putin’s timeline might make meaningful negotiations impossible.
“He is not the young man he was in 2008, nor the youngish man he was in 2014,” DiCianna observes. “He doesn’t have the time and patience to outlast the West that way.”
This urgency could explain Russia’s current military strategy. Russian forces continue their offensive despite heavy losses, particularly in the Pokrovsk area.
“The Russians are pushing hard enough… that they feel like they can keep gaining ground even at this exorbitant loss of life,” DiCianna notes. “They think they can outlast Western munitions and sanctions.”
The expert notes that Russia has little incentive to accept a genuine ceasefire while they believe they can maintain their current pace of advancement. Most critically, DiCianna warns there is a “100% chance” that Russia will break any ceasefire agreement.
Read more:
- “Russians will 100% break any ceasefire in Ukraine,” Republican pundit warns
- Kellogg wants to broker Russia-Ukraine peace deal within 100 days of Trump inauguration
- ISW: Russians make marginal advances near Toretsk, Kurakhove, deploy more fiber-optic drones
